Remote Consensus

The Delphi Technique is a forecasting method invented by the Rand Corporation.  The method begins by identifying a panel of experts.  The experts answer questionnaires in two or three rounds.  After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the expert’s forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons for their judgments.  A similar process is used for the second and third rounds.  It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge on the “best” judgment, or the most probable future development.  A modified Delphi uses a similar technique, although its purpose is not forecasting but consensus building.  It allows a sponsoring agency to build consensus within a region.